The four-week timeline priced in by the market represents a critical threshold for the global economy. Struyven noted that the impact on oil prices is a “convex function” of the disruption’s length. If the conflict is brief—lasting only a few days or a week—the impact on prices will be disproportionately smaller. In a short-term scenario, crude oil can simply be stored on land in Middle Eastern producing countries, delaying deliveries but leaving the cumulative global supply unaffected—a workaround if Iran’s threats of shutting down the Strait stretch come to fruition.
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民宿预订平台途家数据显示，2025年10月12日至2026年3月30日，崇礼区的滑雪民宿预订量同比增长六成，其中有近1/5为连住7天及以上的旅居订单，折射出冰雪旅游从短时体验向深度度假的转型趋势。
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